A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
