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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.